The probability based on historical facts that the US, Russia, Chinese, Indian economies would collapse if fossil fuels continue to be over $100
It is difficult to accurately predict the future state of the economies of the United States, Russia, China, and India based solely on the price of fossil fuels. While the price of fossil fuels can certainly have an impact on these economies, there are many other factors at play that can influence their stability and growth.
Historically, high oil prices have been associated with economic downturns and recessions. For example, the oil crisis of the 1970s, when oil prices suddenly skyrocketed, was followed by economic recession in many countries. However, it is important to note that the relationship between oil prices and economic performance is complex and not necessarily causal.
In the case of the United States, Russia, China, and India, it is worth considering the role that these countries’ economies play in the global economy and the extent to which they rely on fossil fuels. The United States is the world’s largest oil producer and consumes a large amount of oil, but it is also a diverse and innovative economy with a range of sectors that contribute to its overall strength. Russia and Saudi Arabia are also major oil producers, and their economies are heavily reliant on oil exports. China and India are large and rapidly growing economies with a diverse range of industries, and while they are major consumers of oil, they are not as heavily reliant on it as some other countries, but within this decade that scenario will flip if they don’t switch to alternative fuel sources. That could lead to a bypass that cannot be crossed on many fronts, climate change wise as well as geopolitical.
The future state of the economies of the United States, Russia, China, and India based solely on the price of fossil fuels can become highly fractured and complex though as India and China become more reliant on Russian fossil fuel and face geopolitical pressure from the U.S. in supporting Russian supply.
While high oil prices can certainly have an impact on these economies, there are many other factors at play that can influence their stability and growth, the greatest risk is pushing thier populations to a brink with debt and high prices. The greatest impact is thier rising demand and decreasing supply of the producer states as well as the currency and exchange rate pressures caused by the impact of not having mixed supply from all producers.
The exact impact that rapid climate change that would have on global oil prices also needs to be priced in as we see already extreme weather in many parts of the world. A pressure that would impact all economies to the brink would depend on a variety of factors such as the extent and speed of climate change, the ability of the oil industry to adapt to these changes, and the responses of governments and consumers also needs to be added to the analysis. However, it is possible that rapid climate change could lead to disruptions in the oil industry, potentially causing oil prices to fluctuate higher is very probable in the near future breaking the camels back.
In terms of the geopolitical impact of deficits caused by high prices of oil, it is again difficult to predict the exact impact that this would have on military competition between nations forced by internal pressures to dominate and control thier own regions and supply trade routes, tied to controlling the oil markets. However, it is possible that deficits caused by climate change could be very much ballooned and cause a rapid decay in living standards of society at every level preventing investments fast enough in technologies that would wean countries off of fossil fuel dependency.
Geopolitical, military and economic factors will greatly influence the quality of life on our planet over this decades leading to 2030. This is a pinnacle time to change our systems or as all data and consequence is showing, deal with the impact of it crashing on top of us.
